2010 Cleveland Indians Preview

February 7, 2010

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2009 Record: 65-97, 5^th AL Central

2009 Prediction: 70-92, 5^th AL Central

2010 Prediction: 5^th AL Central

 

Impact Player: Grady Sizemore

Impact Pitcher: Kerry Wood

Top Prospect Player:
C Carlos Santana

Top Prospect Pitcher:
LHP Nick Hagadone

 

Manager: Manny Acta, 1^st Season (158-252,
.385 [WAS, 07-09])

 

Significant
Acquisitions: C Mike Redmond,
INF Mark Grudzielanek, 3B Brian Buscher, OF Austin Kearns, RHP Jason
Grilli, RHP Saul Rivera

Significant Losses:
C Kelly Shoppach, INF Jamey Carroll, RHP Tomo Ohka

 

Besides the worst logo in all of baseball (seriously guys,
change it; times have changed, so should you), the Indians also had one of the
worst pitching staffs in all of baseball in 2009.  They finished 13^th in the AL in
ERA and were completely lost after they dealt Cliff Lee to Philadelphia in July. 
The Indians have traded away a practical All-Star team the past few
years saying goodbye to C.C. Sabathia,
Lee, Victor Martinez, and Kelly Shoppach and the front office,
led by GM Mark Shapiro has sat threw the most harrowing free fall in the majors
since being a win away from the World Series in 2007.  Shapiro has orchestrated some of the best
trades in baseball in the past (see Bartolo
Colon to Montreal) but seems to have lost his touch the past few
years.  Ownership is standing behind him,
but one has to wonder for how long. 
Shapiro canned his entire coaching staff after last year’s disaster
season, but was Eric Wedge and company really the problem?  The Indians had no depth on their pitching
staff and a lineup that lacked teeth outside of Grady Sizemore.  Things
aren’t any better this year either; expect another long season, Cleveland.

 

Pitching

You know it’s bad when your “number 1” pitcher is a guy who
has only 30 starts since 2006 and has only one time in his career had an ERA
under 4.  Nonetheless, Jake Westbrook takes the reigns as the
number one starter by default.  He’s
apparently healthy but who knows if he’ll ever be 100% again.  After Westbrook is Fausto Carmona who was brilliant in 2007 posting 19 wins but has
been an enigma since, going 13-19 with a 5.89 ERA in the past two years.  His 2009 was atrocious with only 5 wins and a
6.32 ERA.  Carmona’s work ethic and
attitude have been questioned and he is probably never going to be the pitcher
he was in 2007.  If he continues pitching
this way for much longer, he’ll be out of the rotation.  A swath of pitchers will attempt to fill
spots three through five with Justin
Masterson (acquired in the Victor Martinez trade), David Huff (who won 11 games in his rookie season but posted a 5.61
ERA), Aaron Laffey, Anthony Reyes, Carlos Carrasco (who was acquired in the Lee deal), Mitch Talbot (who was acquired for
Kelly Shoppach), and Rule 5 draft pick Hector
Ambriz being the top contenders.  Top
prospect Nick Hagadone who was also
acquired in the Martinez trade from the Red Sox could also see major league
time at some point in 2010.

 

The best pitcher on the staff is Kerry Wood who will close again this season.  He struggled in his first season with the
Tribe posting a 4.25 ERA and only 20 saves, but there’s no denying his
stuff.  He’s in the last year of his
contract so he’ll likely be traded if/when the Indians fall out of contention.  The rest of the bullpen will be filled by
righties Chris Perez (who can close
if Wood is dealt), Jensen Lewis (who
was much better in ’08 than in ’09), Jason
Grilli (a veteran who was signed in the offseason and can pitch anywhere in
the ‘pen including long relief), and Joe
Smith (who can be an elite setup man if he’s healthy).  Lefthanders Rafael Perez and Tony Sipp
round out the ‘pen.  The former had an
awful year and will look to rebound, while the latter was terrific posting a
2.92 ERA in ’09 as a rookie.  Talbot and Jeremy Sowers will get a look as long
men as both are out of options and must clear waivers if they are sent to the
minors.  All-in-all, the bullpen could end up being a strength if Lewis
and Rafael Perez regain their form and Smith is healthy.

 

ROTATION	Age	B/T
Jake Westbrook	32	R/R
Fausto Carmona	26	R/R
Justin Masterson	25	R/R
David Huff	24/5	L/L
Aaron Laffey	25	L/L
BULLPEN
Kerry Wood	32/3	R/R
Joe Smith	26	R/R
Chris Perez	24/5	R/R
Rafael Perez	28	L/L
Tony Sipp	26/7	L/L
Jensen Lewis	25/6	R/R
Jason Grilli*	33	R/R
POSSIBILITIES
Carlos Carrasco	23	R/R
Anthony Reyes	28	R/R
Saul Rivera*	32	S/R
Mitch Talbot*	26	R/R
Jess Todd	23/4	R/R
Hector Ambriz*	25/6	L/R
Jeremy Sowers	26/7	L/L

*=newly acquired

 

Lineup

The Indians finished 8^th in runs scored in the AL
last year and 7^th in batting average, so it could have been
worse.  If starting centerfielder and
perennial All-Star Grady Sizemore is
healthy (which he wasn’t last year) that might improve this season.  Sizemore hit just .248 last year with only 18
homeruns.  Those numbers should improve
significantly if he’s healthy.  He’s
still one of the best pure athletes in baseball.  Shin-Soo
Choo is back in rightfield and is becoming a very solid major-leaguer.  Last season Choo became the first Asian-born
player to have a 20/20 season with 20 HR and 21 stolen bases.  He also hit .300 with a .883 OPS.  Not to mention that he is one of the best
defensive rightfielders in the AL posting a 9.1 RTot rating last season.  Leftfield will likely go to rookie Michael Brantley, son of former major
leaguer and former Jays hitting coach Mickey Brantley.  Brantley hit .313 in a short stint last
season and might be the best pure hitter in the organization among prospects.  He won’t hit for much power, but with his
contact ability and blazing speed, he could leadoff which would allow the Tribe
to put Sizemore down to third in the lineup and take fuller advantage of his
power.  If Brantley can’t stick, Trevor Crowe could get a look and the
team also signed Austin Kearns to a
minor-league deal.

 

The infield is led by Asdrubal
Cabrera who is becoming a very good player. 
His RTot rating was not great last season, but scouts say he has the raw
ability of a Gold Glover and he came around at the plate last season hitting
.308 with an impressive .799 OPS and 68 RBI. 
He’s still only 24.  Cabrera’s
emergence at short means that Jhonny
Peralta will be the everyday third baseman. 
He’s better suited defensively there than at short and the Indians are
hoping he starts hitting like his old self with less to worry about on the
defensive side of the ball.  The Indians
are probably trying to trade him though. 
Luis Valbuena will be given
the job at second but will be pushed by offseason acquisitions Mark Grudzielanek, Brian Bixler and Luis
Rodriguez.  At first base, young
slugger Matt LaPorta will be given
every opportunity to win the job and show Indians fans that they got something
back in the Sabathia trade.  The catcher
to start the year will be 23-year-old Lou
Marson who was acquired in the Lee deal. 
He has promise, but is likely only holding a spot for the organization’s
top prospect Carlos Santana who
might be ready by mid-season.  Marson may
not be an Indian for long.  The DH will
be Travis Hafner providing he
doesn’t get bought out before the season starts.  Hafner has been a disaster the past few years
and although he blames injuries, one has to question his sudden drop in weight and production in spite of the fact that
he is still only 32.  Is anyone else
curious?

 

Veteran Mike Redmond will
likely start the year as the backup catcher but he’ll turn 39 during the
season.  Wyatt Toregas and Chris
Gimenez (who can also play first and rightfield) are insurance
policies.  Either Crowe or Kearns will be
the fourth outfielder and Grudzielanek will most likely be joined by
utility-infielder Andy Marte who
just can’t seem to get it right at the major-league level.  He has become the penultimate 4-A
player.  Brian Buscher was acquired from the Twins and may get a look at
first base if LaPorta struggles.

 

Pos.		Age	B/T
LF	Michael Brantley	22/3	L/L
SS	Asdrubal Cabrera (2B)	24	S/R
CF	Grady Sizemore	27/8	L/L
3B	Jhonny Peralta (SS)	27/8	R/R
RF	Shin-Soo Choo	27/8	L/L
DH	Travis Hafner	32/3	L/R
1B	Matt LaPorta (RF)	25	R/R
2B	Luis Valbuena	24	L/R
C	Lou Marson	23/4	R/R
	BENCH
INF	Andy Marte (1B, 3B, SS, 2B)	26	R/R
OF	Trevor Crowe (LF, CF, RF)	26	S/R
C	Mike Redmond*	38/9	R/R
INF	Mark Grudzielanek* (2B, SS)	39/0	R/R
	POSSIBILITIES
1B	Chris Gimenez (C, RF)	27	R/R
INF	Brian Bixler* (2B, SS)	27	R/R
C	Wyatt Toregas	27	R/R
LF	Jordan Brown (LF)	26	L/L
3B	Brian Buscher* (1B)	29	L/R
INF	Luis Rodriguez* (2B, SS)	29/0	S/R
OF	Austin Kearns* (RF, LF)	29/0	R/R
OF	Shelley Duncan* (RF, LF, 1B)	30	R/R

*=newly acquired

 

The Indians didn’t do much this offseason so don’t expect miracles.  Their rotation is awful, their bullpen and
lineup are average at best and their young players have yet to hit their
ceiling.  Mark Shapiro could be on the
hot seat if a run at .500 isn’t made, but it’s going to be hard to do that with
the likes of Jake Westbrook and Fausto Carmona at the top of your
rotation.  Indians fans should look to 2011
and beyond.

Final Prediction:
66-96, 5^th AL Central

Written by Travis Reitsma Posted in Dailies Tagged with 2010 Previews, Cleveland Indians