2010 Philadelphia Phillies Preview
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2009 Record: 93-69, 1st NL East
2009 Prediction: 89-73, 2nd NL East (NL
Wildcard)
2010 Prediction: 1st NL East
Impact Player: Ryan Howard
Impact Pitcher: Roy Halladay
Top Prospect Player:
OF Domonic Brown
Top Prospect Pitcher:
RHP Phillippe Aumont
Manager: Charlie Manuel, 6th Season (447-363,
.552)
Significant
Acquisitions: 3B Placido Polanco,
C Brian Schneider, INF Juan Castro, UTIL Ross Gload, RHP Roy Halladay,
RHP Danys Baez, RHP Jose Contreras
Significant Losses: 3B Pedro Feliz, C Paul Bako,
1B/OF Matt Stairs, C Chris Coste, UTIL Eric Bruntlett, LHP Cliff
Lee, RHP Chan Ho Park, RHP Clay Condrey, RHP Brett Myers, RHP Pedro
Martinez, RHP Tyler Walker, LHP Scott Eyre
The Philadelphia Phillies are currently enjoying the glory
years of their franchise. That’s a
little weird to say considering the Phils have been around as long as any Major
League franchise, but it’s true. After
decades of losing that saw only 4 World Series appearances in 80+ years with
only one victory, the Phillies have
won the NL pennant two years in a row, winning it all in 2008. The acquisition of the most prized commodity
in the offseason market in Roy Halladay
ensures that they will be at or near the top again in 2010. The Phillies are trying to become the first
team since the 1922-24 New York Giants to win three consecutive NL pennants.
Pitching
GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. made a controversial trade in the
offseason. No, it wasn’t acquiring
Halladay, it was dealing away Cliff Lee
who had been dominant down the stretch and in the playoffs for the
Phillies. Analysts and experts are constantly
asking why Amaro dealt away Lee. If they’d
have kept him, they say, the Phillies would have been the far and away
favourites to win the NL in a landslide.
Here’s why that thinking is wrong.
Lee would have made the Phils a force this season, but they are a force
without him in a weak National League.
Amaro refused to trade away his future by acquiring Halladay. By trading Lee, he was able to keep his farm
system in a healthy position to ensure that the Phillies will contend for years
to come. Trust me, Phillies’ fans will
thank him when there’s no “rebuilding” phase in five years.
Speaking as a Jays fan, seeing Halladay leave is one of the
hardest things I’ve witnessed from a baseball perspective. He’s a class act and probably the best player
the organization has ever had. He’ll be
the unrivalled ace in the Phillies’ rotation and should be even more dominant than he was with the Jays
considering he’s not pitching in the AL East.
2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels
had a rough 2009 finishing with only 10 wins and a 4.32 ERA. He’ll need to be back in the form that saw
him go 29-15 in 2007-08. He’s still only
26 so there’s no reason to think he can’t get back to that. Joe
Blanton is nothing if not consistent and is back as the third starter while
fourth man J.A. Happ was terrific in
his rookie campaign finishing second in ROTY voting while going 12-4 with a
2.93 ERA. The fifth spot will be a Spring
battle between Kyle Kendrick,
47-year-old Jamie Moyer, and
24-year-old Antonio Bastardo. If Moyer doesn’t start, he could pitch
long-relief although there are rumours that if he’s not starting, he’ll retire.
Brad Lidge was
easily the best closer in the NL in 2008, not blowing a single save the entire
year, but he might have been the worst closer in the NL in 2009. He had 31 saves, but led the majors with 11
blown saves and had the highest ERA of any qualifying reliever at 7.21. Phillies brass still has confidence in their
fragile-minded closer and he enters this year with his job still intact. If he struggles again early on, they could
turn to Ryan Madson who was decent
in setup last year and also posted 10 saves, and offseason acquisition Danys Baez also has experience closing
ballgames. Lefthander J.C. Romero return from his drug
suspension to post a 2.70 ERA down the stretch and veteran Chad Durbin returns as well.
Jose Contreras was signed in
the offseason but won’t start; the Phillies want him in middle-relief to
preserve his arm and take advantage of his still electric stuff. The Phillies could still use some help in the
bullpen as there weren’t any substantial improvements to a unit that was near
the bottom of the NL last year.
|
ROTATION |
Age |
B/T |
|
Roy Halladay* |
32/3 |
R/R |
|
Cole Hamels |
26 |
L/L |
|
Joe Blanton |
29 |
R/R |
|
J.A. Happ |
27 |
L/L |
|
Kyle Kendrick |
25/6 |
R/R |
|
|
|
|
|
BULLPEN |
|
|
|
Brad Lidge |
33 |
R/R |
|
Danys Baez* |
32 |
R/R |
|
Ryan Madson |
29/0 |
L/R |
|
J.C. Romero |
33/4 |
S/L |
|
Chad Durbin |
32 |
R/R |
|
Jose Contreras* |
38 |
R/R |
|
Jamie Moyer |
47 |
L/L |
|
|
|
|
|
POSSIBILITIES |
|
|
|
Sergio Escalona |
25/6 |
L/L |
|
Antonio Bastardo |
24 |
R/L |
|
Mike Zagurski |
27 |
L/L |
|
Drew Naylor |
22/3 |
R/R |
|
Drew Carpenter |
24/5 |
R/R |
*=newly acquired
Lineup
The Phillies are a team built to succeed in their home
field, Citizen’s Bank Park. Lots of
power bats, especially from the left side to take advantage of the short porch
in rightfield. The Phillies finished 1st
in runs scored and homeruns in 2009 in spite of only being 9th in
batting average.
In the outfield, Jayson
Werth had a breakout year in 2009 and is back in rightfield. He hit 36 homeruns and drove in 99 while
being elected to his first All-Star game.
Raul Ibanez took advantage of
the homer-friendly atmosphere in Philly and smacked a career-high 34 homeruns
while driving in 93. He’s not great
defensively in left, but wasn’t as bad as some people thought he would be. Shane
Victorino had a very good year winning a Gold Glove in centerfield in spite
of a -7.7 RTot rating. He also hit .292
with 62 RBI, 25 stolen bases and a league-leading 13 triples. Ibanez or Werth could be dealt at some point
to make room for phenom prospect Domonic
Brown who’s just about ready to crack the big-league roster.
The Phillies have one of the most productive infields in all
of baseball. The right side has two
perennial All-Stars in Ryan Howard
at first and Chase Utley at
second. Those two are among the most
productive players in the game. Howard
led the NL with 141 RBI in ’09 and also swatted 45 homeruns. Most people say he has the most raw power of
anyone in the game. Utley is probably
the best offensive second baseman in baseball and had another outstanding year
with 31 homeruns and 93 RBI. It was the
fifth straight year that he’s hit at least 20 homeruns and driven in at least
90. Jimmy
Rollins is back at short and is one of the best in the game defensively. The former MVP saw his average and on-base
percentage plummet in 2009, but he still hit 21 homeruns and stole 31
bases. He’ll need to bring the average
back up to stay in the leadoff spot where the Phillies want him. At third is Placido Polanco who’s back for a second stint in Philly. Polanco is a Gold Glove second baseman, but
is being moved to third where he played more in his younger days. The defensive transition should be seamless.
On the bench, Brian
Schneider is the new backup catcher and is solid in that role. He knows the pitchers in this division well
having played his entire career in the NL East and plays solid defense. Veteran Juan
Castro will be the backup infielder at second, short and third while Greg Dobbs returns and can play all
four corner positions. Ben Francisco is a solid fourth
outfielder and the Phillies signed Ross
Gload to provide a bat off the bench and give Howard the occasional day off
at first.
|
Pos. |
|
Age |
B/T |
|
SS |
Jimmy Rollins |
31 |
S/R |
|
3B |
Placido Polanco* |
34 |
R/R |
|
2B |
Chase Utley |
31 |
L/R |
|
1B |
Ryan Howard |
30 |
L/L |
|
RF |
Jayson Werth |
30/1 |
R/R |
|
LF |
Raul Ibanez |
37/8 |
L/R |
|
CF |
Shane Victorino |
29 |
S/R |
|
C |
Carlos Ruiz |
31 |
R/R |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BENCH |
|
|
|
C |
Brian Schneider* |
33 |
L/R |
|
INF |
Juan Castro* (SS, 2B, 3B) |
37/8 |
R/R |
|
3B |
Greg Dobbs (1B, LF, RF) |
31/2 |
L/R |
|
1B |
Ross Gload* (LF, RF) |
34 |
L/L |
|
OF |
Ben Francisco (RF, LF, CF) |
29 |
R/R |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
POSSIBILITIES |
|
|
|
OF |
John Mayberry Jr. (RF, LF) |
26 |
R/R |
|
1B |
Andy Tracy (3B) |
36 |
L/R |
|
OF |
Dewayne Wise* (CF, LF) |
32 |
L/L |
|
C |
Paul Hoover |
34 |
R/R |
|
INF |
Cody Ransom* (SS, 2B, 3B) |
34 |
R/R |
|
OF |
Domonic Brown |
22 |
L/L |
*=newly acquired
The Phillies should have no problem in the NL East, even
though the division has some depth with Florida, Atlanta, and New York all
potentially fielding winning teams.
Their weak bullpen needs to improve if they want to make it back to the
World Series, and if Hamels can’t find his form and Happ has a sophomore slump,
the Phils could be in trouble in the postseason. Their offense and the best pitcher in
baseball will carry them to another NL East division crown in 2010.
Final Prediction:
95-67, 1st NL East
